Paris Agreement Could Spare India 30 Extremely Hot Days Each Year, New Study Finds
A Decade of the Paris Agreement
The Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty to combat climate change, is approaching its 10-year milestone. India, a major signatory, may reap significant benefits: a recent study suggests that the country could experience 30 fewer extremely hot days annually if it meets its emission reduction targets.
30 Fewer Hot Days for India
Published on October 16, the study reveals that if India adheres to its commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement and helps limit global warming to 2.6°C this century, it could see 30 fewer extreme heat days each year. Globally, the average reduction could be 57 hot days annually.
Analysis by Climate Central and World Weather Attribution highlights that the Paris Agreement is steering the world toward a safer climate but warns that current actions are insufficient. Without urgent measures, the planet faces catastrophic consequences.
Scientists caution that even at 2.6°C warming, failure to rapidly phase out fossil fuels could subject future generations to dangerous heat, health risks, and rising inequality. Under a 4°C increase scenario—projected before the Paris Agreement—the world could experience an average of 114 hot days per year.
If countries meet their current commitments, global hot days could be reduced by 57 per year. Country-specific projections include 30 fewer hot days for India, 82 for Kenya, 77 for Mexico, 69 for Brazil, 36 for Egypt, 30 for the US, and 29 for the UK.
Strong and Fair Climate Policies Are Essential
Frederick Otto, Professor of Climate Science at Imperial College London, said, “The Paris Agreement is a powerful, legally binding framework that can help us avoid the most severe impacts of climate change. But countries must accelerate the shift from oil, gas, and coal. We have the technology; we need strong and fair policies to act quickly.”
He added, “Even a fraction of a degree of warming—whether 1.4, 1.5, or 1.7°C—can mean the difference between safety and suffering for millions. Political leaders must take the Paris Agreement seriously to protect human rights.”
Global Participation and Current Challenges
Adopted by nearly 200 countries in 2015, the Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise well below 2°C, striving for 1.5°C. However, temperatures have already risen over 1.3°C, with global emissions continuing to climb. The World Meteorological Organization projects a 3.5 parts-per-million increase in global CO₂ levels from 2023 to 2024—the largest annual rise since modern measurements began in 1957.
The study also examined six recent heatwaves across Southern Europe, West Africa, the Amazon, Asia, Australia, and North/Central America. At a 4°C rise, such events could become 5–75 times more likely; at 2.6°C, 3–35 times more likely.
Preparation and Adaptation Are Key
Christina Dahl, VP of Science at Climate Central, noted, “The Paris Agreement helps many regions avoid the worst impacts of climate change, but we are still heading toward a dangerously hot future. Recent heatwaves reveal that many countries are unprepared for even a 1.3°C rise, let alone the 2.6°C projected under current commitments.”
Since 2015, a 0.3°C increase has added 11 hot days globally and significantly increased heatwave probabilities: doubling in India and Pakistan, nine times in Mali and Burkina Faso, and ten times in the Amazon.
Adaptation measures are improving, with nearly half of countries now having early warning systems and 47 countries implementing heat action plans. Yet, many regions in Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia remain vulnerable. Experts stress that the fastest and most effective protection against extreme heat is a rapid transition away from coal, oil, and gas—the main drivers of climate change.