WTC Final: India’s Path to the World Test Championship Final Depends on South Africa and Pakistan – Full Equation Explained
New Zealand, England, Bangladesh, and West Indies are already out of the race for the World Test Championship (WTC) final. No team has secured a spot in the final yet. India’s defeat to Australia in the Adelaide Test has intensified the competition, with Australia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and India among the key contenders.
With 10 Tests remaining in the current WTC cycle, the battle for the top two spots hinges on several equations. According to ESPNcricinfo, here’s how things stand for the competing teams:
South Africa’s Scenario
South Africa currently lead the WTC table with a points percentage of 63.33. They have two Tests left against Pakistan at home, following a 2-0 clean sweep against Sri Lanka.
- Winning one Test: Secures their spot in the final with a 61.11% points percentage. Only India or Australia can overtake them.
- Series Draw (1-1): Keeps them at 61.11%, ensuring they remain strong contenders.
- Both Tests Drawn: South Africa drops to 58.33%, opening the door for India (if they beat Australia 3-2) or Australia (if they win both Tests in Sri Lanka).
- Series Loss (0-1): South Africa would need Australia to win no more than two of their remaining five Tests, or India to win no more than one of their last three matches against Australia, to stay in contention.
Sri Lanka’s Scenario
Sri Lanka has a points percentage of 45.45 and two home matches left against Australia.
- Winning Both Tests: Elevates them to 53.85%, but their qualification depends on unfavorable results for South Africa, India, and Australia.
- Optimal Equation: Sri Lanka wins their two Tests against Australia, South Africa loses both matches to Pakistan, and Australia and India have unfavorable outcomes.
India’s Scenario
India faces three more Tests against Australia and needs to secure two wins and a draw to guarantee their spot in the final.
- Winning 2 Tests and Drawing 1: Brings them to 60.53%, likely placing them second behind South Africa.
- Winning the Series 3-2: Reaches 58.77%, surpassing Australia even if they win 1-0 against Sri Lanka.
- Series Loss (2-3): Leaves India at 53.51%, requiring South Africa to lose both matches to Pakistan and Australia to draw at least one Test in Sri Lanka.
Australia’s Scenario
Australia currently holds a 60.71% points percentage, with three Tests against India and two against Sri Lanka remaining.
- Winning 2 Tests vs. India: Secures their place in the final, regardless of Sri Lanka results.
- Series Loss (2-3): Drops Australia below India (58.77%) unless they win both Tests in Sri Lanka. They also need South Africa to draw no more than one Test against Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Scenario
Pakistan, with a 33.33% points percentage, faces slim chances. Even with four consecutive wins, they would only reach 52.38%, falling short of South Africa’s 52.78%.
- Best Case: Requires multiple unfavorable results for South Africa, India, and Australia, which makes their qualification extremely unlikely.
Conclusion
The race for the WTC final remains highly competitive, with South Africa, Australia, India, and Sri Lanka holding stronger chances. Pakistan’s qualification, while mathematically possible, is highly improbable. With critical matches approaching, every result will significantly shape the final standings.
