Monsoon Likely to Arrive Early in Kerala, Says Meteorological Department
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the southwest monsoon may arrive in Kerala earlier than usual this year. According to the latest forecast released on Sunday, the monsoon is expected to hit Kerala by May 27, ahead of its typical onset date of June 1.
If this prediction holds true, it would mark the earliest arrival of the monsoon in Kerala since 2009, when it made landfall on May 23. An early onset of the monsoon could bring relief from the summer heat and support the agricultural season in many parts of the country.
Strong Rainfall Forecast for 2025
In a positive development for farmers and water resource managers, the IMD has projected above-normal rainfall for the monsoon season in 2025. The four-month season, which runs from June to September, is expected to receive 105% of the long-period average, translating to more than 87 cm of rainfall, which is considered the national average.
This optimistic forecast comes despite concerns around the El Niño effect, which typically results in weaker monsoon rains. However, officials believe its impact will be minimal this year. M. Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, confirmed that India is likely to witness better-than-average rains, supporting crop yields and water storage across regions.
Early Onset in the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal
The Meteorological Department also reported that the monsoon could make its initial advance into the South Andaman Sea, parts of the Bay of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands by May 13—almost a week earlier than the usual date of May 20. This early movement suggests a swift progression of the monsoon toward the Indian mainland.
Typically, it takes about 10 days for the monsoon to travel from the Nicobar Islands to Kerala. If weather patterns remain favorable, Kerala could see the onset of monsoon showers by the end of May, setting the stage for its gradual advancement across the subcontinent. The monsoon usually covers the entire country by July 8, and begins retreating from northwestern India around September 17, fully withdrawing by October 15.